Why You Should Bet on the NFL Draft

The 2017 NFL draft is coming up in a few weeks, and the bookies have released their odds. Time to make money.

April 27th is the date. Hundreds of college football prospects will make their way into the NFL, and earn their first football money of their life. April 27th is also the date you will earn money.

If you follow me on Twitter, you probably know I’m a huge draft nerd. I run the Norwegian draft account @NFLdraften, and I write about the draft for ProFootballSpot.com and the Norwegian site amfotball.com. I spend hours, and hours, and hours to study college player game tape, and as I write this I’ve gone in-depth (watching 3 games or more) on 65 prospects – in addition to watching college football all season long. So that’s me, the biggest NFL draft nerd you will find in Norway.

However, I am perfectly aware that being a nerd doesn’t necessarily mean you’re a good odds tipser. In this case though, I have the numbers to back it up.

NFL

I am fully aware that this is an extremely small sample size, but then again; the draft is once a year and I started doing picks officially in 2014. 2015 was OK, locking in the two 1 unit bets. 2016 was epic, with the only bet lost was a long shot. What’s interesting though, is that I’ve never watched more tape, read more reports, or done more research than this year.

Skjermbilde 2017-04-15 kl. 22.29.17

The bet I was most happy with last year was “1st pick: Jared Goff”. As you can see in the image above, I got it at 2.00. Guess what it closed at? 1.05. And of course he was picked 1st overall by the Los Angeles Rams. Bookies didn’t have a clue. I’m sure we’ll find value like that in 2017 as well.

Now, I’ll try to explain how we’ll do just exactly that. Every year, there’s tons of Mock Drafts. A mock draft is pretty much a guess at how the draft will turn out. Mock drafts is being done by pretty much everyone, all from experts to fans. The trick is to pay attention to those mock drafts by the people you know have inside sources in the league. That’s guys like NFL Networks Daniel Jeremiah and Mike Mayock, ESPN’s Mel Kiper, and a few others. I use those mock drafts, because that’s as close to “inside info” on the draft I will ever get. The problem is, bookies definitely use that too. In other words, you can’t win on just betting on mock drafts.

usa-today-9273074.0Last year, the Los Angeles Rams traded up to the 1st overall pick two weeks before the draft. My logic at that point was pretty simple: 1) You don’t trade up to the first overall pick to pick anything other than a quarterback. 2) You don’t trade up to the first overall pick to take an unproven quarterback from division II (as the only two options was Jared Goff and Carson Wentz). Conclusion: They must pick Jared Goff. I still don’t understand how the odds were 2.00, and while one expert after another mock drafted Goff at number 1, the odds fell. There hasn’t been any pre draft trades yet this year, but If there is – there will be value. So stay tuned.

But, trades isn’t the only way of making money on the draft. I already have a few bets picked out, and I do see a max bet from the early odds. The bookies simply buy to much into “fake news”. It’s standard for the NFL draft. Teams try to make players fall, by talking up other players – or talking down players they like. Draft news, especially when we’re getting to April, is usually bullshit. Bookies buy it – I don’t. Most times, the draft reports from January is more real then the reports in April.

aptopix_texas_a_m_alabama_footballLast year, Joey Bosa was talked up to be the best player all season long. Then, the months before the draft, there were a lot of reports that talked him down. He was picked 3rd overall, and if it wasn’t for the two QB trades at the top of the board, he probably would’ve gone 1st overall. Jonathan Allen is a similar prospect this year. He was awesome in January, but somehow he isn’t anymore. He’ll probably be a top 5 pick when it’s all said and done. This is just one example of how I pick my bets. You can’t read too much into reports, and trust your eyes. It worked in 2015, and it worked in 2016. Hopefully it will work April 27th this year as well.

You will find my 2017 NFL draft bets at Valuewins.com/matrixholt.

– Mattis Holt
@matrixholt