The NFL draft: Prop Heaven

The NFL draft prop bets has landed. Here’s the ones worth noticing.

The 2018 NFL draft is coming up later this month. Three days, seven rounds, 256 players picked. I will be attending in Dallas, and I’m pretty pumped to say the least. These last few weeks will be packed with rumors and smoke, but also some legit reports. Seperating the fake from the real is what makes the process fun, but it’s also what can make you some money on the prop bets.

NordicBet has had some props out a few days already, but the American bookies just released their. A few of them is pretty set without any real betting value, but some of them is definitely worth banking a few units on. Here are the most interesting prop bets (from BetOnline.ag), with the most interesting bets highlighted:

First Player taken

I took Sam Darnold to be the first player taken when his odds were 2.75. That’s down to 1.40 now, so no value left. However, if you want to go another direction, Bleacher Report’s draft analyst Matt Miller is reporting Browns is thinking about drafting Josh Allen no. 1 overall. Odds is 2.75. Might be worth taking, but I still think Darnold will be the pick for the Browns.

Another way to go is Saquon Barkley at 6.00, but I can’t see a running back being drafted #1. Josh Rosen is actually my top quarterback, so 9.00 is also great value for him. But, again, I do expect Darnold to be the first name called in Dallas. You also get odds on 2nd QB taken, and I really think the New York Giants could pick Josh Rosen at #2 after Browns take Darnold. That pays 2.25.

  1. Sam Darnold – 1.40
  2. Josh Allen – 2.75
  3. Saquon Barkley – 6.00
  4. Josh Rosen – 9.00

First Wide Receiver Taken

This prop is really interesting, because I have no clue who goes first. I like Calvin Ridley, but he tested bad. Courtland Sutton looks like a WR1, but he looked un-interested when playing in college. DJ Moore is getting hype, but I don’t really see that. Christian Kirk is getting some buzz, but he’s more of a premium slot receiver with ability to produce out of the backfield as well. That did get Christian McCaffrey drafted top 10 last year, but Kirk isn’t as fluid as a runner.

Michael Gallup, James Washington, Anthony Miller and DJ Chark are other very good wide receivers. My top wide receiver is Calvin Ridley, and he is also the favorite to be the first wide receiver taken at 1.50 – but, he’s not really a typical «WR1». Courtland Sutton is – and he’s priced at 5.00. That’s solid. Anthony Miller might be the most electrical receiver in the class, and he’s not even listed at BetOnline’s prop list. «Any Other WR» is priced at 12 – that could be the right bet here.

  1. Calvin Ridley – 1.50
  2. DJ Moore – 2.60
  3. Courtland Sutton – 5.00
  4. James Washington – 11.00
  5. Any Other WR – 12.00
  6. Christian Kirk – 13.00

Total QB’s drafted in the 1st round

I’ve already posted this bet on ValueWins as a 2-uniter on a 1,5 unit scale. The line is 5,5 quarterbacks. I’m all in on the under. It «only» pays 1.58, but should be 1.01. SIX quarterbacks taken in the first round? It has NEVER happened before. This class is getting so crazy overhyped. These are the six best quarterbacks: Josh Rosen, Sam Darnold, Josh Allen, Baker Mayfield, Lamar Jackson, Mason Rudolph.

Rosen and Darnold will get drafted top five. Allen, Mayfield, Jackson can all definitely slide out of the first round, as they all have different issues. Mason Rudolph though? If he gets drafted in the first round, I’ll streak on stage in Dallas on Draft Day.

Total RB’s drafted in 1st round

Barkley is going top 10. Probably top 5. The field behind him is really tight, and includes Nick Chubb, Sony Michel, Ronald Jones, Derrius Guice and Rashaad Penny. All have 1st-round talent, but the fact that there’s so many good RB’s can make them slide to the 2nd, because teams know they can get an elite RB there instead. The line is 1,5, so if you believe one of them will get picked on day 1, the over at 1.66 is golden.

Draft Position – QB Baker Mayfield

BetOnline has his line at 6,5. That means that if Mayfield is picked before pick #7, you’ll win on the «under» at 1.66. If he’s picked #7 or later, that makes the over a winner at 2.10. We’ve been over this already, but Mayfield can’t compete with Rosen and Darnold as prospects.

I do believe he’s better than Josh Allen, but there are way more character concerns with Mayfield. But let’s look at who’s picking in the top 6.

  1. Browns
  2. Giants
  3. Jets
  4. Browns
  5. Broncos
  6. Colts

The Colts moved down from three to six, which pretty much says «we’re not in the QB market». Jets, on the other hand, are. Giants are reportedly not interested in trading down, which means they might be all in on the Barkley train – or they’ll be looking for a replacement for Eli Manning. That should be Josh Rosen. Browns will take Darnold no. 1. Then Jets will have to «settle» with Josh Allen or Baker Mayfield. If Allen is the pick, then the Browns should be all over Barkley at four. Then everything is up to the Denver Broncos, who just a signed a quarterback (Case Keenum), and has several young QB’s on their roster. Will they pick the Heisman winner anyway? It’s a tough one.

Draft Position – DE Bradley Chubb

If the draft falls as described above, then the Bradley Chubb line is a gift. It’s at 5,5, which means if he falls past the Broncos, the over wins at 1,71. Indianapolis Colts GM Chris Ballard has said that they didn’t want to move lower then pick six, because then they’d miss the opportunity of a premium player, and many people believe the player he was talking about was Bradley Chubb. I agree – he should at least fall to six, but there’s still several players I’d pick over Chubb.


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WRITTEN BY MATTIS HOLT, SPORTS WRITER AND VALUELIVE SHOW HOST

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