Crazy things happen in the NFL draft. If you can predict what, you’ll be a rich man. So, let’s try.
An Instagram video of a prospect smoking pot in a gas mask released minutes before the draft? A homeless guy making a pick? A German with no experience from football in America getting drafted? A trade-up for a kicker in the 2nd round? Yeah, it happened. And something like that will happen again. Players will slide, players will be over-drafted, and fans will boo.
I’ve been churning through game tape for over 60 NFL draft prospects so far this season, and I’ve noticed I have some players I’m higher on than most – and also players I’m way lower on than others. Here’s my draft hot takes.
Memphis WR Anthony Miller will be the first receiver off the board
Yep. In a draft class that lacks a clear cut no. 1 receiver, Anthony Miller might just as well be the first receiver taken. He is a very similar player to Jarvis Landry, and Landry would easily have been the best receiver in this class. Miller is athletic, has speed, electric feet and a quick release. And his hands are 10 5/8 inches. HUGE. He’s pretty much everything you want in a receiver, except he’s only 5-11.
I can see someone reaching for Courtland Sutton (6-4), or perhaps picking a similar player like Alabama WR Calvin Ridley as a “safer” pick, but I think there’s a good chance Anthony Miller will be the first receiver drafted.
Odds: Anthony Miller first WR @ 36.00 (NordicBet)
Michigan DT Maurice Hurst won’t get drafted
Yeah, I said it. I like to trust my eyes, and I am not impressed by what I’m seeing from PFF’s top ranked D-lineman, Michigan’s defensive tackle Maurice Hurst. He’s undersized for the position, he is easily locked down if his initial burst fails, his vision and instincts are extremely poor, and he lacks elite balance and athleticism to get past good offensive lineman. I mean, he struggled against centers! He’s explosive, though. For me, that’s a mid-rounder.
However, when you add his medical issues (got sent home from the NFL Combine with a heart condition), he might as well be an un-drafted free agent.
Odds: Nothing yet.
Wyoming QB Josh Allen is not getting drafted in the first round
Sorry, but I think the hype around Allen is all media-made. His stats are awful, his team didn’t win, and he’s just not a good quarterback. He has his moments, but the gap between those moments are just too big. He’s tall, has an arm, and «looks the part». But many teams has burnt themselves on QBs like that before. He makes horrible mistakes under pressure, and struggles with accuracy. The mental part just isn’t there, and that’s hard to teach.
In a class where you can get productive players like Baker Mayfield and Lamar Jackson, I can easily see Allen sliding out of the first round. I mean, that’s where he belongs.
Odds: Nothing yet.
UCF linebacker Shaquem Griffin will not be the last player to leave the green room
Shaquem Griffin is an amazing person, and his story is unbelievable. People will say that it was the story that got him an invite to attend the NFL draft, but I believe his talent’s is 1st round worthy. He’s crazy fast, plays with an unbelievable passion, and never quits. His motor just keeps on going. He has disciplined eyes, magic instincts, and wraps well. His versatility can line him up all over the field, and he is very, very athletic. And last, but not least, his work ethic is second to none. Mark my words, he will be a very good NFL player, even though he’s missing a hand.
He will be sitting back stage in Dallas, waiting to hear his name called. It’s always interesting to see who gets an invite, as those are usually expected to be 1st rounders. I think Griffin is up there with several other invites this year, and I do not think he will be the last player in the green room.
Odds: Shaquem Griffin in the 1st round @ 61.00 // 2nd round @ 16.00 (Bookmaker.eu)
San Diego State RB Rashaad Penny will be the 2nd running back drafted
Wooah, easy there homer! Maybe my San Diego State heart wants this to happen a bit too much, but I try to stay professional. I’ve seen tape on every single top running back prospect, and Rashaad Penny’s tape is one long highlight reel. You might bash his opponents, but Penny’s 175 rushing yards against Stanford tells another story. You might say he can’t block, and well… he can’t, but it’s teachable! He wasn’t asked to block for San Diego State, they had Nick Bawden for that. Give him an NFL coach, and he’ll be blocking like any other running back.
Saquon Barkley is going to be the first running back drafted, there’s no doubt about that. The 2nd one is harder to predict, but I definitely think Penny has a shot. All it takes is one team in the bottom of the 1st round/top of the 2nd to fall in love with Penny’s tape. And honestly, if you watch his tape and don’t fall in love, you don’t have a heart.
Odds: “Any other running back” 2nd RB @ 34.00 (BetOnline.ag)
WRITTEN BY MATTIS HOLT, SPORTS WRITER AND VALUELIVE SHOW HOST
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