Is amount of work put in proportional with results in the betting world? In the short run: No, most likely not. In the long run: Not necessarily, but definitely it’s definitely positively correlated.
The season which I followed the Italian Serie A the closest. The season where I watched every single minute of Serie A football. The season where I started to seriously organize and systemize all that’s, in my opinion, to be considered relevant data in betting terms (every opening price of Pinnacle, every closing price of Pinnacle, xG for each team in each game, chance production in all occurring game states, player impact for each team etc.).
This is also my first season with negative numbers betting-wise in Serie A.
I’m not going to defend it particularly – the numbers are there, they’re negative and that’s it. Should I though try to explain why it ended like it did? Yes, I’d like that.
With more data in hand I’ve also been more comfortable taking more risks for a potential higher reward. “Higher risk” in this sense means maximizing the spots where I do believe there’s value to be collected. Thus, taking more risky/volatile lines at an earlier stage is imperative. The downfall to that is that, even if you you’re able to be sitting on the correct side (postive EV) at match start, football is still a low scoring game and thus with randomness as a major factor. Consequently, a season with 300-400 picks is not representative to test a tipster’s value if you’re solely basing it on actual results.
As I’ve dug deeper into my numbers I noticed that live bets, in today’s market competing against the margins even the sharpest bookies takes, you got to be pretty damn shrewd to be profitable in the long run. I’m in no position at the moment to boast such skills at this time being. So for next season on I’ll be taking no marginal live bets. The in-play bets I’ll make will be very few and greatly, greatly considered back and forth.
The thing that made me “glad” when the season ended, even though I ended on a negative note in 18/19, was my numbers in Italy on the asian markets – only considering pre-match bets. The sample is still small (my complete active spread at Valuewins), but it’s a slight, slight indication that we’re doing something right.
Conclusively, I’m not at all stating that I’m the greatest tipster out there – let that be clear, but I’m confident that I’m among the top guys when it comes to humility of workload put in to make the better picks in the long run. Making a living of betting (the asian market) is no easy 9-5 kind of work with days off in the weekends. It’s on of the most exhausting and bumpy roads to (a stable) income there is – but I’m dedicated to giving it a real shot.
And I hope you’re keen on joining me on that path.
That’s all from me – stay safe and bet great. In that order.
WRITTEN BY TRYGVE RØED, SERIE A FOR VALUEWINS
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